Analyzing Trump’s win in Connecticut’s Republican primary

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Donald Trump won big in Connecticut’s Republican primary election, getting two votes for every single John Kasich vote.

The number of towns Trump did not win can be counted on one hand: Salisbury, West Hartford, New Canaan, Darien and Westport.

In the Democratic primary Hillary Clinton saw more support in cities than Bernie Sanders but less support in rural and suburban towns. There was no such clear delineation in the Republican race.

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In the towns that Trump won, he won by wide margins.

There were only a handful of towns where a dozen votes could have pushed the results into Kasich’s favor: Cornwall, Bloomfield and Lyme. 

Towns with the closest margins
Town Trump Kasich Difference
Salisbury 104 119 -15
Cornwall 54 43 11
Bloomfield 304 291 13
Lyme 137 124 13
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The towns with the strongest support for Trump included Derby, Sterling and East Haven.

Where Trump had the most support
Town Trump Kasich Difference
Derby 75.3% 12.4% 62.9%
Sterling 75.4% 14.2% 61.2%
East Haven 75.0% 13.9% 61.1%
Wolcott 73.8% 13.7% 60.1%
Waterbury 72.1% 13.5% 58.6%
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In the towns that Kasich managed to beat Trump, the difference was only in single-digit percentage points.

Where Kasich beat Trump
Town Trump Kasich Difference
Darien 41.5% 49.8% 8.3%
New Canaan 41.0% 47.8% 6.8%
Salisbury 37.8% 43.3% 5.5%
West Hartford 42.7% 45.1% 2.4%
Westport 44.3% 46.2% 1.9%
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For some context, Trump did much better than Sen. John McCain did eight years ago in the 2008 Connecticut Republican primary.

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Check our work: The GitHub repository containing our work is available here. We encourage you to look over our calculations and expand upon our analysis.


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