The new ballpark in Connecticut for the Hartford Yard Goats will be called “Dunkin’ Donuts Park,” according to an announcement last week. The coffee and pastry chain already owns the naming rights for the indoor arena in Providence — The Dunkin’ Donuts Center.
The Dunkin’ Donuts brand name is slowly expanding westward. It’s no surprise since the business has such a strong presence along the East Coast.
But which state and town in New England has the distinction of being the number one location for Dunkin’ Donuts?
And which cities in Connecticut have too many or not enough stores?
TrendCT conducted an analysis based on number of stores and population of each town.
Though Connecticut will lay claim to a minor league ball park, the state is actually fourth out of all the other New England towns as a whole with only 1.4 Dunkin’ Donuts per 10,000 residents.
The home state of the corporation, Massachusetts, is number one with 1.7 stores per 10,000 residents, followed by Rhode Island and New Hampshire with both at 1.64.
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Connecticut claims two out of the five spots for towns with the most Dunkin’ Donuts, thanks to Hartford and New Haven.
Adjusting for population is a bit tricky because tiny towns throw off the per capita figures.
To try to account for that, we ignored all instances of towns with only one store.
It turns out a small town in Maine, Palmyra, gets to claim that they have the most Dunkin’ Donuts per capita in New England with one store per thousand residents. There’s two stores for a town of less than 2,000 and they’re about 500 yards away from each other.
In Connecticut alone, Lisbon has the most stores with 0.7 per thousand.
It turns out there’s a very strong correlation between a town’s population and the number of Dunkin’ Donuts.
Running a polynomial regression model on population and number of stores in New England (minus the outlier city Boston) yields a prediction formula for number of stores based on the number of people per town.
Based on this simple model alone, we can see which towns have plenty of room to add more Dunkins’: such as Bridgeport with 10 and Stamford with 7.
On the other hand, it appears Windsor Locks has four too many stores for its population size. However, Bradley International Airport is in Windsor Locks. According to the model, Hartford has three too many stores. However, what those towns lack in residential population, they make up with travelers and commuting workers.
There could be any number of reasons why the current number of Dunkin’ Donuts stores in those towns don’t match the model, like zoning or traffic figures.
The corporation probably considers way more than one factor like population size to decide the optimal place to open a store.
Check out the list below for a comprehensive look at all the towns in New England.
Note: An earlier version of this story used a simple linear regression model. A more accurate model was achieved using a polynomial regression model and excluded the outlier city of Boston.