What states did folks go to when moving out of Connecticut? What states did new Nutmeggers come from? Well, it turns out it’s hard to say.
The Census Bureau estimates about 178,247 people moved to or from Connecticut in its most recent 2014 American Community Survey data, but that big number comes with some big caveats.
A look at the estimates for each state shows margins of error that range from 19% (New York) to 230% (Michigan).
The numbers are fuzzy, and so is our map.
A soft focus on estimated moves in and out of the state
The state-to-state migration from the American Community Survey is based on current state of residence and state of residence a year earlier for a sample of the population. According to the Census Bureau, the 2014 ACS data for Connecticut is based on about 36,000 interviews.
Among the more clear findings, a lot of people moved between Connecticut and New York, Florida, Massachusetts, California and Pennsylvania. It starts to get pretty hazy after that.
The Census Bureau estimates that, by far, more people moved between New York and Connecticut than between any other state and Connecticut: Anywhere from 17,218 to 25,644 moved into Connecticut and anywhere from 11,827 to 17,471 went the opposite way.
But, even with the largest group and smallest margins of error, that’s still a pretty unclear picture.
It turns out, the IRS publishes some data of its own on migration flow, based on changes on tax returns. It’s perhaps more precise than the survey, but represents a subset of the population: Taxpayers.
The most recent data available is for 2012-13, with more recent data temporarily unavailable. The 2012-13 data corroborates the broad strokes take-away of the Census estimates: Nearby states, as well as Florida and California are among the top states for people moving to and from Connecticut.
In addition to a count of tax returns, considered an estimate of households, the IRS data include the filers’ adjust gross incomes.
|state||Returns inflow||Returns outflow||AGI inflow ($)||AGI outflow ($)|
|District Of Columbia||261||307||21195000||13556000|