American Health Care Act: Who gains and loses in Connecticut?

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The Republican proposal to replace Obamacare has big implications for Connecticut residents who purchase individual health insurance plans, depending on different factors like age and income level.

Young people with high incomes or who live in low-premium states like Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Washington, could receive larger assistance under the replacement plan, according to an analysis by the Kaiser Family Foundation.

However, people who are older, lower-income, or living in high-premium areas such as Alaska and Arizona would receive lower tax credits under the American Health Care Act than under Obamacare.

Under both the current law and the GOP proposals, tax credits are used to discount insurance premiums for people who buy health plans on their own.

But the calculations to determine the size of those credits are done differently under each plan. Obamacare takes family income, local cost of insurance, and age into account. And because insurance costs vary by county, the amount of credits people receive vary by county. The Republican replacement proposal bases tax credits only on age, with a phase out for individuals with incomes above $75,000. There would be no variation based on where a person lives.

The GOP plan also would allow the tax credits to be used on a wider range of plans than is allowed under Obamacare.

So who would see a larger discount and who would get less under the GOP proposal?

In Connecticut, residents older than 60 who make less than $50,000 could lose as much as $9,000 in tax credits, with the largest gap in Fairfield County, where insurance is most expensive.

Those who earn less than $30,000 in Connecticut, no matter the age, also would lose some tax credits.

In contrast, young people and those around 40 years old would gain slightly larger tax credits under the AHCA plan in Connecticut, once their pay exceeds $40,000, but would level out once their incomes reach $100,000. Under both plans, individuals earning $100,000 would get no subsidy.

Residents older than 60 would only see higher tax credits under the GOP plan if they have income above $75,000.

The bill is a long way from making it through the House and the Senate, with resistance mounting. Obamacare remains the law.

See how other counties across the country would make out if the act passes.


Check our work: The GitHub repository containing our work is available here. We encourage you to look over our calculations and expand upon our analysis.


What do you think?

  • Raul de Brigard

    This calculation only compares the tax credits in Trumpcare to the insurance subsidies in Obamacare. It neglects to consider the cancelation of $700 billion worth of taxes in Obamacare. That tax relief will solely benefit the well-to-do, and will hurt Medicare, since the proceeds for many of the taxes were directed at helping pay for Medicare. This is the reason why some have asked whether this is a health bill, or a tax bill. And this also may be the reason the bill is being rushed through committee hearings before the Congressional Budget Office can highlight the fact that Trumpcare comes nowhere near to paying for itself and will be a huge drain on federal dollars, far greater than Obamacare. No wonder conservative Republicans oppose it!